Peter Hollins - Mental Models
- Address "Important"; Ignore "Urgent" to separate priorities from impostors
- Visualize All the Dominoes to make decisions as informed as possible
- Make Reversible Decisions to remove indecisions and have a bias to action
- Seek "Satisfiction" to achieve your priorities and ignore what doesn't matter
- Stay within 40% - 70% to balance information with action
- Minimize Regret by consulting the future you on decisions
- Ignore "Black Swans" to understand how outliers shouldn't change your thinking
- Look for Equilibrium Points to find real patterns in data and not be fooled
- Wait for the Regression to the Mean to find real patterns in data and not be fooled
- What Would Bayes Do to calculate probabilities and predict the future based on real events
- Do It Like Darwin to seek real, honest truth in a situation
- Think With System 2 to think analytically instead of emotionally
- Peer Review Your Perspectives to understand the consensus view and why you might differ
- Find Your Own Flaws to scrutinize yourself before others can
- Separate Correlation From Causation to understand what truly needs to be addressed to solve a problem
Decision Making For Speed And Context
To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
- Abraham Maslow
A mental model is a blueprint to emphasize important aspects of whatever you're facing, and it defines context, background and direction.
Without them, you are only able to see the haphazard, individual elements with no connection to each other.
A chef is someone who has the mental models of flavor profiles, what basic ingredients are needed for a stock or a sauce, typical techniques for different meats, and the conventional beverage and food pairings.
You can think of mental models as life heuristics or guidelines to evaluate and comprehend.
Mental models aren't perfect representations of the world around us, they serve to separate the signal from the noise for a specific perspective.
Too few mental models limit your capability to comprehend.
MM #5: Stay within 40% - 70% to balance information with action
Be faster than the "informed" people and more informed than the "fast" people.
The trick here is to not wait for all of the information before making an important decision as it might take too long or it's impossible to get all of the information.
The general sweet spot is to have no less than 40% and no more than 70% of information to make a decision.
Not enough information and you're just guessing.
To much information and you're overthinking, and being slow.
Find the sweet spot, your intuition can fill in the gaps.
Plus you can learn on your feet as the decision is playing out, and adjust if possible/necessary.© nem035RSS